Naomi Osaka vs Peyton Stearns Prediction 5/12/25 Rome Tennis Picks

Naomi Osaka and Peyton Stearns meet in the round of 16 of the 2025 Italian Open Rome on Monday, May 12, 2025. Here’s our Naomi Osaka vs Peyton Stearns prediction. This preview will also include a Naomi Osaka vs Peyton Stearns pick.

Naomi Osaka Preview

Naomi Osaka beat World No. 53 Marie Bouzkova in the last round. Osaka prevailed in three sets after two and a half hours. The Japanese star lost the first set 6-4 after 49 minutes, being the only one to lose her serve. But Osaka rolled through in the end. In the second set, she broke Bouzkova twice to lead 5-1. Despite an unsuccessful first attempt to serve for the set, she eventually got it done on the second and converted her fourth set point.

Osaka dominated the third set, breaking the Czech for a 3-1 lead. And she consolidated her advantage before getting the second break in the ninth game that sealed the match. Osaka won two rounds before this. She beat home wild card Sara Errani in her opener in straight sets and then knocked out Swiss one-hander Viktorija Golubic in three sets in the second round. Osaka is on an eight-match winning streak, having captured the WTA 125K in Saint-Malo this past week.

Peyton Stearns Preview

Peyton Stearns earned one of the best wins of her career in the third round of the Italian Open. She defeated Australian Open champion Madison Keys. The most impressive thing was how she responded after losing the first set, eventually seeing off her compatriot in three sets. 

The World No. 42 prevailed 2-6, 6-2, 7-6. Stearns went up a break in the deciding set, but was taken to a tie-break. She did hold her nerve in the end to win the breaker 7-3. Stearns defeated Nuria Brancaccio and Anna Kalinskaya, each in straight sets, in the last two rounds. This is her debut appearance at the Italian Open, and she will compete for a spot in the quarterfinal. Stearns has won six of her last eight matches on clay and has advanced to the last 16 in back-to-back WTA 1000s.

Naomi Osaka vs Peyton Stearns Head-To-Head

Osaka and Stearns have not played at any level. This will be their first meeting.

Naomi Osaka vs Peyton Stearns Prediction

Osaka opens as the heavy favorite at -166. She’s on an eight-match winning streak. It’s her best run on clay, and she’s looking more focused and sharper. Her game has clicked. We’re also seeing improved resilience, highlighted by two comeback wins in the last round, and her shot tolerance is near exceptional. Stearns can grind, and she is patient, with better coordination and discipline, and won’t easily become rattled. That said, I still fancy Osaka to progress in her current purple patch.

Nur Said's Pick: Naomi Osaka to win AND over 21.5 games