Jasmine Paolini vs Jelena Ostapenko Prediction 5/12/25 Rome Tennis Picks

Jasmine Paolini and Jelena Ostapenko meet in the round of 16 of the 2025 Italian Open Rome on Monday, May 12, 2025. Here’s our Jasmine Paolini vs Jelena Ostapenko prediction. This preview will also include a Jasmine Paolini vs Jelena Ostapenko pick.

Jasmine Paolini Preview

Jasmine Paolini is the sixth seed at the Italian Open and is coming off a straight-sets win over 27th seed Ons Jabeur in the last round. Paolini took the first set 6-4, breaking Jabeur three times. The second set stayed on serve for the first seven games. But Paolini broke to love to lead 5-2 and served to love to wrap up the match in straight sets.

Paolini finished the match having landed 73% of first serves and winning 73% of first serve points (27/37). She won 64% of second serve points (9/14) and saved one of three break points in the match. Paolini also defeated Lulu Sun by the same score in the opening round. It’s the first time she has reached the last 16 in Rome (in singles). Paolini has won six of eight matches on clay this season and improves to 18-8 in the overall win-loss tally.

Jelena Ostapenko Preview

Jelena Ostapenko is the 17th seed in Rome. This is her 10th main draw appearance at the event, having made her debut back in 2016. She has reached one semifinal and three quarterfinals in the past. Ostapenko is looking to reach another quarterfinal and received a walkover in the last round. Her opponent, Laura Siegemund, withdrew from the tournament because of injury.

Before that, Ostapenko kicked off her campaign in high gear, beating the dangerous Slovak, Rebecca Sramkova, in three sets. Ostapenko dropped the first set 6-1 in under half an hour. But an aggressive return performance in the next two sets turned the match on its head. Ostapenko broke Sramkova five times to win 1-6, 6-4, 6-3 in an hour and 48 minutes.

The Latvian finished the match with four aces and eight double faults. She landed 56% of first serves in play and won 69% of first serve points (29/42). Ostapenko won 33% of second serve points (11/33) and saved five of 11 breakpoints.

Jasmine Paolini and Jelena Ostapenko Head-To-Head

Paolini and Ostapenko have met twice at all levels. Ostapenko leads 2-1 and won their last meeting at the 2025 Qatar Open in straight sets. These two players have never met on clay before.

Jasmine Paolini and Jelena Ostapenko Prediction

I’m going with a Paolini win. Yes, Ostapenko totally demolished her when they met on the fast hard courts of Doha just three months ago, but she’ll need to be perfect to produce a similar performance on the slow clay of Rome. 

And with the Latvian, you don’t always get that as she tends to play on the edge – firing massive winners but also racking up the unforced errors in equal supply. Paolini will get that fraction of a second to reach most of those balls and I can see her frustrating Ostapenko with her shot quality especially if rallies extend beyond five points.

Nur Said's Pick: Jasmine Paolini in three sets