Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction 5/1/25 NHL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators Prediction for this NHL game on Thursday, May 1st, at the Canadian Tire Centre. To formulate this prediction, we will look at: 

-The Maple Leafs’ recent form and recent player performance

-The Senators’ recent form and recent player performance

-Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Toronto

-Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Ottawa

-Recent betting trends in games played between Toronto and Ottawa 

-A summary that ties it all together produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between the Maple Leafs and Senators. 

Maple Leafs in Trouble?

The Maple Leafs know they only need one win in the last two games but if they were to lose this game, all of a sudden the pressure will be crazy on them with all the talks about them not winning a playoff series. In the last game against the Ottawa Senators, the offense scored zero goals, and that led to the blowout defeat. The Maple Leafs gave up three goals in the third period and that led to the game getting blown out. Anthony Stolarz was in the goal, and he saved 15 of the 17 shots that he faced. They really need better goaltending out of him here. 

The Maple Leafs have now lost two games in a row and during the two games the defense has gvien up eight goals over the last two games. Even though they are still winning the series, the offense has not actually been as strong as maybe they would like. John Tavares has scored three goals and added two assists. 

Why the Maple Leafs Will Beat the Senators

• The Maple Leafs have won three of their last four games as road underdogs.
• The Senators have lost two of their last three games as favorites following a road win.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in 13 of the last 14 games between the Maple Leafs and Senators at Canadian Tire Centre.
• The Senators have failed to cover the puck line in 16 of their last 18 games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Senators have lost the third period in each of their last three games following a road win.

Senators Have the Momentum

The games the Senators have lost in this series have been close, but the last two games they have been impressive and now they have the momentum. The Senators scored four goals on Tuesday and that was enough for the victory. Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk both had strong games scoring a goal and adding two assists. Linus Ullmark saved all 29 of the shots that he faced. 

The Senators won 4-0, but two of those were empty net goals, and even in the last game, the offense wasn’t all that impressive in the first two periods. In this game, the Senators are going to need to get the offense out to a fast start, especially on the road. Brady Tkachuk has scored three goals and added three assists so far in the playoffs. 

Total Goal Facts

• Six of the Maple Leafs’ last seven road games following a home loss have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Four of the Senators’ last five home night games following a road win have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Three of the last four games between two teams from the Atlantic Division have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs’ last 10 road games.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in 14 of the Senators’ last 15 games as home favorites against opponents on a losing streak.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction

The Toronto Maple Leafs have all the pressure right now and they are going to really start to crack in this game. The Maple Leafs goaltending has been a problem heading into this game and the Senators are going to continue. The bigger issue, though, was the way the Maple Leafs’ offense looked in the last game, and they are going to struggle again here to get quality scoring chances. Toronto is going to fail to score more than a goal, and Ottawa will come out on top. Back the Senators.