Sabres vs Lightning Prediction NHL Picks 2/29/24

The Buffalo Sabres will play the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. Buffalo has won three of their last four games, while Tampa Bay has won two of their last three. Let’s take a look at the betting matchup and the Sabres vs Lightning prediction.

Sabres Preview

The Buffalo Sabres are 27-28-4 this year after they lost to Florida by a score of 3-2 in their last game. Buffalo led 1-0 early in the first period, but allowed the next three goals in the loss. The Sabres were out shot by a total of 37-30 and went 1-4 on the power play in the game. Buffalo had won their previous three games against Carolina, Columbus, and Montreal. The Sabres are scoring 2.88 goals per game and they are allowing 3.00 goals against per game, while going 15.2% on the power play and 79.1% on the penalty kill. Rasmus Dahlin has led Buffalo with 14 goals, 30 assists, and 178 shots on goal. The projected starting goalie for Buffalo is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who is 17-15-2 this season with a 2.47 goals against average and a .914 save percentage. 

Lightning Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 32-24-5 this season after they lost to Philadelphia by a score of 6-2 in their last game. Tampa Bay tied the game at one in the second period, but they allowed five third period goals for the loss. The Lightning were out shot by a total of 31-22 and went 0-2 on the power play in the game. Tampa Bay defeated the Devils by a score of 4-1 and the Islanders by a score of 4-2 in the two games prior to Philadelphia. The Lightning are scoring 3.38 goals per game and they are allowing 3.39 goals against per game, while going 29% on the power play and 80.7% on the penalty kill. Nikita Kucherov has led Tampa Bay with 38 goals, 65 assists, and 248 shots on goal. The projected starting goalie for Tampa Bay is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 20-15-0 this year with a 2.99 goals against average and a .896 save percentage. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Team Facts

• The Lightning have won eight of their last nine night games following a road loss.
• The Lightning have covered the puck line in each of their last four games as favorites following a road loss.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1’ market has hit in each of the Lightning’s last eight games as favorites against the Sabres.
• The favorites have won the third period in each of the last four games between the Sabres and Lightning at Amalie Arena.

Buffalo Sabres Team Facts

• The Sabres have lost each of their last seven night games at Amalie Arena following a road loss.
• The underdogs have covered the puck line in nine of the Sabres’ last 10 games.
• The Sabres have lost the first period in each of their last five games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Sabres’ last four night games at Amalie Arena.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Brayden Point has scored the last goal in three of the Lightning’s last four games against Eastern Conference opponents at Amalie Arena.
• Brayden Point has scored at least one goal in six of the Lightning’s last seven games at Amalie Arena.
• Brandon Hagel has recorded at least one point in each of the Lightning’s last 12 night games.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in eight of the Lightning’s last nine home games.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks 1st in the league for Power Play Points (41) this season.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

• Tage Thompson has scored at least one goal in three of the Sabres’ last four games as underdogs against the Lightning.
• Rasmus Dahlin has recorded at least one point in each of the Sabres’ last five games against the Lightning.
• Rasmus Dahlin has recorded at least one assist in each of the Sabres’ last four games as underdogs against the Lightning.
• Dylan Cozens has scored two goals against the Lightning this season – most against any opponent.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 25th in the league for goals against per game this season (3.39).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 1st in the league for power play goals this season (53).
• The Buffalo Sabres rank 31st in the league for Period 1 goals scored per game this season (0.69).
• The Buffalo Sabres rank 2nd in the league for Period 3 goals allowed per game this season (0.81).

Sabres vs Lightning Betting Prediction

Buffalo comes into this game after winning three of their last four games and they play their best hockey on the road, where they are 14-12-3 this year. Tampa Bay has had some issues on the road, but they are one of the best home teams in the league, going 18-8-3 on home ice. The Lightning have been a decent offensive team this year, but they are allowing 3.39 goals against per game on defense. This is the third meeting between these teams this year, with each team winning a game so far. The Sabres are playing strong hockey right now, but I can’t go against Tampa Bay on their home ice. Take the Lightning here. 

David Racey's Pick: Lightning ML