Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction 4/30/25 NBA Picks

Golden State Warriors Betting Preview 

The Golden State Warriors are now just one win from advancing to the second round after outlasting the Rockets in a thrilling 109-106 home win in Game 4 on Monday. Jimmy Butler III led the team in scoring with 27 points, five rebounds and six assists, Brandin Podziemski added 26 points with five assists on nine of 18 shooting, Stephen Curry scored 17 points while Buddy Hield chipped in with 15 points. As a team, the Warriors shot just 41 percent from the field and 17 of 46 from the 3-point line as they got off to a sluggish start and trailed by seven points going into halftime. But they played great defense to climb back into the contest before Butler III drained five free throws in the final 58.1 seconds to give the Warriors the crucial win at home. 

Houston Rockets Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets will be kicking themselves after missing out on a crucial chance to square up the series on Monday. Alperen Sengun led the team with 31 points, 10 rebounds and five assists on 12 of 28 shooting, Fred VanVleet connected on eight 3-pointers to finish with 25 points and six assists while Amen Thompson chipped in with 17 points and nine rebounds. As a team, the Rockets shot 49 percent from the field and 11 of 23 from the 3-point line. But in a game that could’ve gone either way, the Rockets will be ruing the fact that they shot just 19 of 31 from the free throw line. Jalen Green finished with just eight points despite a quick start, while no bench player scored more than six points. 

Why the Houston Rockets will win

• The Rockets have won each of their last 11 Wednesday night games at Toyota Center.
• The Warriors have lost each of their last five Wednesday games against Southwest Division opponents that held a winning record.
• The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven playoff games following a win.
• The Rockets have covered the spread in seven of their last eight Wednesday games as favorites.

Why the Golden State Warriors will win

• The Warriors have won nine of their last 10 road games against Western Conference opponents.
• The Rockets have lost seven of their last eight playoff games.
• The Warriors have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Rockets at Toyota Center.
• The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games at Toyota Center against Warriors teams that held a winning record.

Houston Rockets Player Facts

• Fred VanVleet ranks 8th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.
• Jabari Smith Jr. is one of only 25 players to have scored 30+ points off the bench in a game this season.

Golden State Warriors Player Facts

• Jimmy Butler has recorded three career playoff triple-doubles.
• Buddy Hield ranks 11th amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per 36 minutes (3.9) this season.

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction

The Warriors are expecting to have a full squad for this contest, while the Rockets are still slightly shorthanded, with Jae’Sean Tate still ruled out. The Warriors were able to get the job done in Game 4 despite trailing for most of the contest, and what made it more impressive was that they didn’t rely on any heroics from Curry. The Rockets might still be mulling over their missed opportunities, but they know that they have a real chance to come back here if they can just defend home court to keep the pressure on the Warriors. The Warriors hold all the momentum, but while I don’t see the Rockets moving onto the second round, I think the Rockets should have won on Monday. I like their chances at the short line in a must-win game at home.