San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 5/3/25 MLB Picks

The San Diego Padres and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Saturday in MLB action from PNC Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send out Randy Vasquez for the start here, and Vasquez is 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA and 10 strikeouts this season. This will be Vasquez’s second career start against the Pirates. The Pittsburgh Pirates will trot out Bailey Falter for the start here, and Falter is 1-3 with a 5.93 ERA and 22 strikeouts this season. This will be Falter’s second career start against the Padres.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their 9-4 win over the Pirates from Friday’s series opener to improve to 20-11 on the year. After this series, the Padres will head on the road for a series against the New York Yankees.

Padres Win Three In A Row

Manny Machado has 32 hits, including a team-high 10 doubles and 6 stolen bases, while Fernando Tatis Jr. has 39 hits with a team-high 8 home runs and 18 RBIs, along with 7 stolen bases of his own this season. Luis Arraez has added 31 hits with 4 doubles, while Jackson Merrill’s added 14 hits with 3 home runs and 10 RBIs as well. Xander Bogaerts also has 8 doubles and 5 stolen bases this season. Gavin Sheets also has 4 doubles, 4 home runs, and 14 RBIs this season.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last 10 games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last nine day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Saturday games against National League opponents.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one Double in four of the Padres’ last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Padres’ last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Luis Arraez has recorded two or more hits in each of the Padres’ last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Luis Arraez has scored at least one run in each of the Padres’ last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one Single in each of the Padres’ last eight games against NL opponents.
• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Padres as favorites.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to bounce back after the loss to start the series against the Padres to slip to 12-21 on the year. After this series, the Pirates will head on the road for a series against the Cardinals.

Pirates Lose 5 Of Their Last 6

Bryan Reynolds has a team-high 32 hits with 5 doubles, 4 home runs, and 17 RBIs while also leading the Pirates with 41 strikeouts so far this season. Oneil Cruz has posted a team-high 8 home runs and 17 RBIs with 14 stolen bases, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa has 28 hits with 6 stolen bases. Emmanuel Valdez also has a pair of triples this season. Tommy Pham has 4 doubles and Andrew McCutchen has 6 doubles, and KeBryan Hayes has 13 RBIs and 3 stolen bases.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won four of their last five games as underdogs following a home loss.
• The Padres have lost four of their last seven games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a home loss.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Andrew McCutchen has hit at least one home run in each of his last two appearances in day games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
• Adam Frazier has scored a run in each of his last seven appearances against the Padres at PNC Park.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine appearances with the Pirates as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• Adam Frazier has recorded at least one hit in each of his 13 previous appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against the Padres.
• Jack Suwinski has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances in day games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz ranks 1st in the league in Steals (14) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last six day games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Padres’ last seven day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.

San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

I’m on the over here. These are just two starting pitchers for their respective rotations that I just don’t trust, as Bailey Falter has been batting practice for opposing teams for the better part of his career, and Randy Vasquez feels like a prime candidate for upcoming regression. These are two teams that have some solid bats in their respective lineups as well, and I think that we’re going to get plenty of runs in Saturday’s clash. Give me the over here.