Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction 5/14/25 MLB Picks

The Kansas City Royals are visiting the Houston Astros on Wednesday, May 14th at the Daikin Park in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction. We will examine:

The Houston Astros’ recent form and player performance

The Kansas City Royals’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Houston Astros

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas City Royals

Recent betting trends in games played between the Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros game

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 21-20 record this season and are sitting in third place in the AL West. The Astros have a 14-9 home record and 18-21 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-1 home victory against the Royals, and are 4-2 in their last 6 games. Under is 5-3 in their last 8 games, and they are playing the Rangers and the Rays next.

The Astros have a .250 batting average this season, a .322 OBP, and a .379 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.47 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Jeremy Pena leads the Astros with 47 hits, 21 RBI, and a team-high 6 home runs. Jake Meyers is the team’s best hitter, with a .308 batting average.

Colton Gordon (L) will take the mound for the Astros, and this will be his MLB debut. He was an eighth-round pick in 2021 out of Central Florida, and he is 4-0 with a 2.55 ERA in eight starts for Sugar Land, with 43 strikeouts in 42⅓ innings. He last pitched Friday, throwing six innings of two-run ball in the Space Cowboys’ 7-2 win at Salt Lake City.   

Kansas City Royals Preview

The Kansas City Royals have a 25-19 record this season and are sitting in third place in the AL Central. The Royals have a 9-12 road record and are 15-28 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-2 road defeat by the Astros, and are 1-3 in their last 4 games. Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 road games, and they are playing the Cardinals and the Giants next.

The Royals have a .242 batting average this season, a .300 OBP, and a .359 Slugging percentage. Kansas’ pitching staff has a 3.00 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Bobby Witt Jr leads the Royals with 53 hits and is the team’s best hitter with a .312 batting average, adding a team-high 25 RBI. Vinnie Pasquantino leads the team in home runs, with 6.

Michael Lorenzen (R) will take the mound for the Royals, and he has a 3-3 record, 2.57 ERA, and 1.26 WHIP. He has been terrible on the road, with a 5.47 ERA across 5 starts. He has one earned run or less in three of his last four starts, and he is coming off a shutout performance in 7 innings of work against the Red Sox.   

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Royals have lost eight of their last nine road games against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have won nine of their last 10 night games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against AL West opponents following a road loss.
• The Royals have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last eight road games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The Royals have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Astros have lost 10 of their last 12 games as favorites following a home win.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight Wednesday games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Royals have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games against American League opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six night games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the Royals’ last 12 night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Astros’ last nine games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Royals’ last 13 games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six games between the Royals and Astros at Daikin Park.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (285).
• The Astros rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.215).
• The Royals rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (28).
• The Royals rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (306).

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction

The Astros are 6-3 in their last 9 overall meetings against the Royals, and under is 5-3 in their last 8 meetings. In this Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction, the Astros are coming as -135 home favorites. The books continue to overvalue the Astros, as they have a worse record than the Royals and are putting up a pitcher who will make his MLB debut.

Lorenzen has been bad on the road, but he is coming off three quality starts in his last four games. The Royals cannot hit anything, and they average just 3.2 runs per game against lefties, and both teams have solid bullpens. I don’t see this game having 9 runs, so take the under 8 in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 8