Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction 5/12/25 MLB Picks

The Kansas City Royals are visiting the Houston Astros on Monday, May 12th at the Daikin Park in the opening game of this series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction. We will examine:

The Houston Astros’ recent form and player performance

The Kansas City Royals’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Houston Astros

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas City Royals

Recent betting trends in games played between the Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros game

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 20-19 record this season and are sitting in second place in the AL West. The Astros have a 13-8 home record and 17-20 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-0 home victory over the Cincinnati Reds, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Under is 4-2 in their last 6 games. The Astros have a .248 batting average this season, a .322 OBP, and a .375 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.44 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Jeremy Pena leads the Astros with 32 hits and a team-high 5 home runs, while Yainer Diaz leads the team in RBI with 21. Jake Meyers is the team’s best hitter, with a .291 batting average.

Ryan Gusto (R) will take the mound for the Astros, and he has a 3-1 record, 2.93 ERA, and 1.27 WHIP. He has been weaker at home with a 3.52 ERA across three starts, and he has given up 2+ runs in three of his four starts this season.  

Kansas City Royals Preview

The Kansas City Royals have a 24-18 record this season and are sitting in third place in the AL Central. The Royals have an 8-11 road record and are 14-27 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-3 home defeat by the Boston Red Sox, and have dropped two straight games following a seven-game winning streak. Under is 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Royals have a .242 batting average this season, a .300 OBP, and a .359 Slugging percentage. Kansas’ pitching staff has a 2.99 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Bobby Witt Jr leads the Royals with 51 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .315 batting average. Vinnie Pasquantino leads the team in RBI with 24, adding a team-high 6 home runs.

Michael Wacha (R) will take the mound for the Royals, and he has a 2-4 record, 2.98 ERA, and 1.15 WHIP. He has been weaker on the road with a 4.15 ERA across three starts, but he is coming off a shutout performance against the White Sox at home. In his previous start against the Astros this season, he had zero earned runs in 6 innings of work.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last eight night games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Royals have lost each of their last seven road games against AL West opponents.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 road games against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Royals have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven road games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The Royals have won six of their last seven games as road underdogs.
• The Astros have lost nine of their last 11 games as favorites following a home win.
• The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last five games as road underdogs following a home loss.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games against the Royals following a home win.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight night games.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine night games.
• The Astros have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against AL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Royals’ last 10 night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Astros’ last seven games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Royals’ last 11 games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last seven Monday games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (268).
• The Astros rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.213).
• The Royals rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (27).
• The Royals rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (294).

Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction

The Royals won their only series against the Astros this season by 2-1 wins, and are a commanding 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City. Under is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings.

In this Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros Prediction, the Astros are coming as -115 home favorites. This should be a pick ’em game, as the Royals have a better overall record, but have been below average on the road. Both teams have similarly good bullpens, but the Astros are hitting better. But Wacha has seen them already once this season, and he had a shutout performance against them. With the Royals struggling mightily to score, two solid pitchers on the mound, and two good bullpens, I don’t expect a high-scoring game. The total is set at 8.5, and I don’t expect nine runs to be scored in this game, so I will go with the under 8.5 runs.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 8.5