Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 5/11/25 MLB Picks

The Atlanta Braves and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Sunday in MLB action from PNC Park. This will be the finale in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Braves vs Pirates prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Braves vs Pirates pick. We will examine: 

The Atlanta Braves’ recent form and player performance

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ recent form and player performance 

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Atlanta Braves

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates

Recent betting trends in games played between the Braves and Pirates

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Braves vs Pirates game

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Braves kicked off the year with losses in sweeps versus the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers, then posted a two-game tie with the Miami Marlins. A set win versus Philly came next, then two more defeats versus Tampa Bay and Toronto. Following a sweep over the Twins came series victories versus the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Rockies before another set loss to the Dodgers. Atlanta managed to win three of their four games versus the Reds this past week, then took a tough loss to the Pirates 3-2 in their Friday opener. 

In Saturday’s game, the Braves powered out a 3-2 victory in 11 innings. Matt Olson had two runs with a solo homer. Starting pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver finished on 5.2 innings with one earned run on five hits and two walks. 

As a starter for Sunday, the Braves are sending out Chris Sale. This year, Sale is 1-3 with a 4.07 ERA in eight starts over 42.0 innings. Sale is 139-86 with a 3.06 ERA in 380 career games (300 starts) at the MLB level. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

Over on the Pirates’ side, they lost their first three series to start off the year, falling to the Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, and New York Yankees. Pittsburgh won a set over the Cardinals ahead of a sweep by the Reds and a series win over the Nationals. The Pirates were swept by Cleveland, then beat the Angels in a set over the next pair. Set defeats versus the Dodgers, Cubs, and Padres came next, then three straight losses versus the Cardinals this week, ahead of Friday’s victory. 

In the Saturday game, the Pirates got two hits and an RBI off Matt Gorski, while Joey Bart had four hits and an RBI of his own. Andrew Heaney went 6.0 innings in the start with four hits, three walks, and two earned runs. 

It’ll be Carmen Mlodzinski in the starter slot for the Pirates on Sunday. This year, Mlodzinski is 1-3 with a 6.16 ERA in seven starts across 30.2 innings total. Mlodzinski is 9-11 with a 3.76 ERA in 82 games (12 starts) over his career. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Braves have lost each of their last four games as favorites after going to extra innings.
• The Pirates have won each of their last three games as home underdogs against the Braves following a loss.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs following an extra-innings loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Pirates following a win.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against National League opponents.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last eight day games after playing the previous day.
• The Braves have won eight of their last 10 day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents.
• The Braves have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against the Pirates at PNC Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last five games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Braves’ last five games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Pirates’ last nine games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last four games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.

Braves vs Pirates Prediction 

I’ll lean toward the Braves. Sale has been doing well on the mound over his last three games, though he’s just a tepid 1-1 in that time. Sale has 18.2 innings combined across those three, with three earned on 15 hits and four walks. As for Mlodzinski, he’s got 13.2 innings in his last three games with seven combined earned runs on 15 hits and two walks. Mlodzinski doesn’t have a decision at that time. 

Atlanta didn’t have a great offensive evening on Saturday (five hits), but still pulled off the win thanks to some nifty pitching. I like the Braves to keep it going Sunday, but they’ve got to hit. 

Andrew Jett's Pick: Atlanta Braves -192