Astros vs Marlins Prediction – MLB Picks 8/16/23

The Houston Astros and Miami Marlins face off on Wednesday in an MLB showdown at Marlins Park. 

Astros Bats Have Been Inconsistent

Heading into Tuesday night’s game the Astros had scored only two runs total in the previous two games and they need to find a way to get the offense going here. In the first game of this series the Marlins were defeated 5-1. The Astros are averaging 4.84 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.16 runs per game. The offense is ranked 7th while the pitching is ranked 8th. On the mound for the Astros will be Justin Verlander who sits with a 7-6 record and an ERA of 3.19. In his last start against the Angels he went six innings giving up six hits and three runs. 

Astros Betting Trends

• The Astros have lost four of their last five games as road favorites following a win.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last five games as favorites.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games as favorites.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Marlins One of the Best Surprises in Baseball

The Marlins have become one of the best surprises in baseball. I expected them to fall off by this point of the season, but they just continue to win games. In the last series against the New York Yankees, the Marlins were able to win two of the three games. The Marlins are averaging 4.08 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.38 runs per game. The offense is ranked 26th in the league while the pitching is ranked 15th. Jorge Soler has hit 29 home runs and driven in 63 RBIs. On the mound for the Marlins will be Jesus Luzardo who sits with an 8-7 record and an ERA of 3.91. 

Marlins Betting Trends

• The Marlins have won three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Marlins’ last eight games.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in four of their last six games as home underdogs against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last six games as underdogs.

Astros vs Marlins Facts

• The Miami Marlins ranks 28th in the league for walks this season (313).
• The Miami Marlins ranks 4th in the league for hits this season (1076).
• The Houston Astros ranks 5th in the league for strikeouts against this season (955).
• The Houston Astros ranks 6th in the league for runs scored this season (587).

Shane’s Free Pick

The Marlins have value here. Verlander gave up three runs in his last start and he’s going to give up a couple of runs here. Luzardo has been good, and he’s going to lockdown the Astros bats are a bit cold. This might be a bit of a sweat but it’s going to be the Marlins that are going to get the job done. Back the Marlins on the money line. 

Shane Mickle's Pick: Marlins ML